| What-If Analysis for First-Year Projections |
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following tables explore the variability of projected first-year operating
income (see M_IS worksheet) based on variations in sales |
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| volumes,
sales prices, cost of sales and overhead expenses. They are automatically
updated whenever the Exl-Plan model is |
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| recalculated.
To use this facility, first-year projections must be complete (but not
necessarily final). |
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Table
1 - Calculated Operating Income ($000) for Year-Ending Jan 2006 |
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Variations in Sales Volumes |
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-15% |
-10% |
-5% |
Base |
+5% |
+10% |
+15% |
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-15% |
-1,208.7 |
-1,144.2 |
-1,079.6 |
-1,015.1 |
-950.6 |
-886.0 |
-821.5 |
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Variations |
-10% |
-1,009.8 |
-933.5 |
-857.3 |
-781.1 |
-704.8 |
-628.6 |
-552.4 |
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in |
-5% |
-810.9 |
-722.9 |
-635.0 |
-547.0 |
-459.1 |
-371.2 |
-283.2 |
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Sales |
Base |
-611.9 |
-512.3 |
-412.6 |
-313.0 |
-213.4 |
-113.7 |
-14.1 |
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Prices |
+5% |
-413.0 |
-301.7 |
-190.3 |
-79.0 |
32.4 |
143.7 |
255.1 |
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+10% |
-214.1 |
-91.0 |
32.0 |
155.1 |
278.1 |
401.2 |
524.2 |
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+15% |
-15.1 |
119.6 |
254.4 |
389.1 |
523.9 |
658.6 |
793.3 |
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Note: This analysis assumes that
cost of sales are fully variable and that overhead expenses |
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remain fixed irrespective of any
sales volume changes. |
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Example of Interpretation: A 10%
reduction in sales volumes plus a 5% increase in sales prices |
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could
result in an operating loss of 301.7 ($000) as compared with the projected
base-case |
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operating
loss of 313 ($000). |
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Table
2 - Calculated Operating Income ($000) for Year-Ending Jan 2006 |
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Variations in Overhead Expenses |
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+15% |
+10% |
+5% |
Base |
-5% |
-10% |
-15% |
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+15% |
-1,032.1 |
-926.8 |
-821.5 |
-716.2 |
-610.9 |
-505.6 |
-400.3 |
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Variations |
+10% |
-897.7 |
-792.4 |
-687.1 |
-581.8 |
-476.5 |
-371.2 |
-265.9 |
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in |
+5% |
-763.3 |
-658.0 |
-552.7 |
-447.4 |
-342.1 |
-236.8 |
-131.5 |
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Cost |
Base |
-628.9 |
-523.6 |
-418.3 |
-313.0 |
-207.7 |
-102.4 |
2.9 |
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of |
-5% |
-494.5 |
-389.2 |
-283.9 |
-178.6 |
-73.3 |
32.0 |
137.3 |
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Sales |
-10% |
-360.1 |
-254.8 |
-149.5 |
-44.2 |
61.1 |
166.4 |
271.7 |
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-15% |
-225.7 |
-120.4 |
-15.1 |
90.2 |
195.5 |
300.8 |
406.1 |
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Note: This analysis assumes that
cost of sales and overhead expenses can be varied without any |
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knock-on effects or consequences. |
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Example
of Interpretation: A 10% reduction in overhead expenses could improve
base-case |
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operating
income by 210.6 ($000). In contrast, a 10% reduction in cost of sales could
improve |
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operating
income by 268.8 ($000). |
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