What-If Analysis for First-Year Projections
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The following tables explore the variability of projected first-year operating income (see M_IS worksheet) based on variations in sales  
volumes, sales prices, cost of sales and overhead expenses. They are automatically updated whenever the Exl-Plan model is  
recalculated. To use this facility, first-year projections must be complete (but not necessarily final).  
 
 
Table 1 - Calculated Operating Income ($000) for Year-Ending Dec 2005  
 
Variations in Sales Volumes              
-15% -10% -5% Base +5% +10% +15%  
  -15% -1,785.3 -1,751.9 -1,718.4 -1,685.0 -1,651.5 -1,618.0 -1,584.6  
Variations -10% -1,614.2 -1,570.7 -1,527.1 -1,483.6 -1,440.1 -1,396.5 -1,353.0  
in -5% -1,443.0 -1,389.4 -1,335.8 -1,282.2 -1,228.6 -1,175.0 -1,121.4  
Sales Base -1,271.9 -1,208.2 -1,144.5 -1,080.9 -1,017.2 -953.5 -889.9  
Prices +5% -1,100.7 -1,027.0 -953.2 -879.5 -805.8 -732.0 -658.3  
  +10% -929.5 -845.7 -761.9 -678.1 -594.3 -510.5 -426.7  
  +15% -758.4 -664.5 -570.6 -476.8 -382.9 -289.0 -195.1  
Note: This analysis assumes that cost of sales are fully variable and that overhead expenses  
remain fixed irrespective of any sales volume changes.  
 
Example of Interpretation: A 10% reduction in sales volumes plus a 5% increase in sales prices  
could result in an operating loss of 1027 ($000) as compared with the projected base-case  
operating loss of 1080.9 ($000).  
 
 
Table 2 - Calculated Operating Income ($000) for Year-Ending Dec 2005  
 
Variations in Overhead Expenses              
+15% +10% +5% Base -5% -10% -15%  
  +15% -1,805.5 -1,701.6 -1,597.8 -1,494.0 -1,390.1 -1,286.3 -1,182.4  
Variations +10% -1,667.8 -1,563.9 -1,460.1 -1,356.3 -1,252.4 -1,148.6 -1,044.7  
in +5% -1,530.1 -1,426.2 -1,322.4 -1,218.6 -1,114.7 -1,010.9 -907.0  
Cost Base -1,392.4 -1,288.5 -1,184.7 -1,080.9 -977.0 -873.2 -769.3  
of  -5% -1,254.7 -1,150.8 -1,047.0 -943.2 -839.3 -735.5 -631.6  
Sales -10% -1,117.0 -1,013.1 -909.3 -805.5 -701.6 -597.8 -493.9  
  -15% -979.3 -875.4 -771.6 -667.8 -563.9 -460.1 -356.2  
Note: This analysis assumes that cost of sales and overhead expenses can be varied without any  
knock-on effects or consequences.  
 
Example of Interpretation: A 10% reduction in overhead expenses could improve base-case  
operating income by 207.7 ($000). In contrast, a 10% reduction in cost of sales could improve  
operating income by 275.4 ($000).