What-If Analysis for First-Year Projections
Help Print What-If Analysis
The following tables explore the variability of projected first-year operating income (see M_IS worksheet) based on variations in sales
volumes, sales prices, cost of sales and overhead expenses. They are automatically updated whenever the Exl-Plan model is
recalculated. To use this facility, first-year projections must be complete (but not necessarily final).
Table 1 - Calculated Operating Income ($000) for Year-Ending Jan 2006
Variations in Sales Volumes            
-15% -10% -5% Base +5% +10% +15%
  -15% -1,208.7 -1,144.2 -1,079.6 -1,015.1 -950.6 -886.0 -821.5
Variations -10% -1,009.8 -933.5 -857.3 -781.1 -704.8 -628.6 -552.4
in -5% -810.9 -722.9 -635.0 -547.0 -459.1 -371.2 -283.2
Sales Base -611.9 -512.3 -412.6 -313.0 -213.4 -113.7 -14.1
Prices +5% -413.0 -301.7 -190.3 -79.0 32.4 143.7 255.1
  +10% -214.1 -91.0 32.0 155.1 278.1 401.2 524.2
  +15% -15.1 119.6 254.4 389.1 523.9 658.6 793.3
Note: This analysis assumes that cost of sales are fully variable and that overhead expenses
remain fixed irrespective of any sales volume changes.
Example of Interpretation: A 10% reduction in sales volumes plus a 5% increase in sales prices
could result in an operating loss of 301.7 ($000) as compared with the projected base-case
operating loss of 313 ($000).
Table 2 - Calculated Operating Income ($000) for Year-Ending Jan 2006
Variations in Overhead Expenses            
+15% +10% +5% Base -5% -10% -15%
  +15% -1,032.1 -926.8 -821.5 -716.2 -610.9 -505.6 -400.3
Variations +10% -897.7 -792.4 -687.1 -581.8 -476.5 -371.2 -265.9
in +5% -763.3 -658.0 -552.7 -447.4 -342.1 -236.8 -131.5
Cost Base -628.9 -523.6 -418.3 -313.0 -207.7 -102.4 2.9
of  -5% -494.5 -389.2 -283.9 -178.6 -73.3 32.0 137.3
Sales -10% -360.1 -254.8 -149.5 -44.2 61.1 166.4 271.7
  -15% -225.7 -120.4 -15.1 90.2 195.5 300.8 406.1
Note: This analysis assumes that cost of sales and overhead expenses can be varied without any
knock-on effects or consequences.
Example of Interpretation: A 10% reduction in overhead expenses could improve base-case 
operating income by 210.6 ($000). In contrast, a 10% reduction in cost of sales could improve
operating income by 268.8 ($000).